Southeast Asia will become a new growth pole for international trade

Recently, the global logistics company DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business jointly released a new edition of the "DHL Trade Growth Atlas", which depicts the most important development trends and prospects of global trade in goods and demonstrates the resilience of global trade under market shocks. According to the report, "China's trade growth has accounted for a quarter of the global total in recent years, while Southeast Asia and South Asia will become new trade growth poles, and sub-Saharan Africa's trade growth will accelerate significantly." The atlas covers 173 countries and regions around the world, providing policy makers and industry leaders with more commercially valuable market trend information.

Peng Cheng, CEO of DHL Express, said, "For centuries, trade has been a key driver in driving and achieving global prosperity. In the current global business environment, DHL can help customers reorganize their supply chain layout and rationally balance costs and inconveniences. certainty, so as to build a safer and more efficient supply chain. As a logistics company serving the world, we have the ability to provide logistics solutions that meet the various needs of customers, and can provide stable and reliable in the ever-changing market environment. Serve."

In the current market environment, the importance of international trade is more prominent, not only can accelerate economic growth, reduce inflation, but also help companies and countries to obtain major resources from more diverse sources.

Focusing on growth, transformation and new opportunities, this Atlas of Trade Growth measures the changing share of countries and regions in global trade. The Atlas gives the following judgment: "Contrary to many people's expectations, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has not become a major obstacle to the development of global trade: under the circumstance of supply-side bottlenecks restricting further growth, the total international trade in goods still exceeds the pre-epidemic level. 10%." "Trade growth prospects remain positive - although trade growth forecasts have been downgraded due to geopolitical conflicts, growth in 2022 and 2023 is still expected to be slightly higher than the previous decade." "E-commerce sales during the epidemic Rising sharply, cross-border e-commerce is expected to continue to experience strong growth.”

The joint study believes that more countries will see trade growth. In recent years, China's trade growth has accounted for a quarter of the global total. It is predicted that its future growth will remain the first, but its share may decline. The pace and scale of trade growth in Vietnam, India dan Filipina will be of particular interest through 2026, and will benefit from companies’ more diversified production and sourcing strategies. Between 2000 and 2012, emerging economies' share of global trade rose from 24 percent to 40 percent, with half of the growth coming from China. This share ratio has changed little over the past decade.

“However, emerging economies continue to grow rapidly in terms of connectivity, innovation and leading companies. Their importance in the export of high-end manufacturing products is increasing, and their competitiveness in innovation and quality, in addition to low cost, is increasing. ."

Based on research on global trade growth trends, geographic changes, trade product mixes and wide-ranging changes in the business environment, the DHL Trade Growth Atlas provides an overview of global goods across regions, developed and emerging economies, and 173 countries and territories by different dimensions. The trade situation is analysed and a one-page summary is provided for each country and region. These countries and regions cover more than 99% of global trade, GDP and global population.

“We distill the most important data on the state and trajectory of global trade and present it in maps, charts and other visualizations. The results show that there is still a huge opportunity for trade growth in advanced and emerging economies, as well as in every region of the world. The trade landscape is changing and bringing new challenges. However, the report strongly refutes predictions of a major setback in global trade.” Senior Research Scholar, Center for Future Management, NYU Stern School of Business, DHL Globalization Research Program Director Steven Altman said.

According to reports, the "DHL Trade Growth Atlas" is a supplement to the "DHL Global Connectivity Index" series of reports. The former provides an in-depth study of global trade in goods, while the latter has been published regularly since 2011, providing a broader analysis and interpretation of globalization in terms of trade in goods and services, and global flows of capital, people, and information. Both reports aim to identify potential business opportunities and explore trade and globalization based on facts and figures.

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