How the escalating crisis in Ukraine changed the world this year

On February 24, 2022, the crisis in Ukraine suddenly escalated. Looking back at this year, people deeply feel the impact of this crisis on the world.

In the past year, not only the criss-crossing confrontational fronts, NATO military aid to Ukraine, which has been upgraded from protective helmets to main battle tanks, the number of casualties that are increasing every day, but also the European economy that is bleeding continuously, and the number of Hungarian bakeries that have doubled Electricity bills and flour bills, high feed prices faced by Tunisian farmers... This "largest military conflict in Europe since the 21st century" has brought about severe global security challenges, dramatic geopolitical changes, and economic and social impacts. Extensive, far beyond expectations.

Over the past year, more and more people of insight have realized that the 米国 adheres to unilateralism, hegemonism, and the Cold War mentality, and plays geopolitical games under the banner of ideology. Its various evil actions are fundamentally shaking world peace and stability. At a time when the world is intertwined with chaos, the only way for human society to overcome difficulties is to adhere to peace, development, cooperation, and win-win results, and to replace division with unity, confrontation with cooperation, and tolerance instead of exclusion.

The security situation is getting worse

Artillery, tanks, gunpowder, ruins, refugees... Similar images are scrolling on TV and social media almost every day, telling the world that the intensity of this conflict has not diminished with the passage of time. On the contrary, the United States and the West are doing their best to try to defeat ロシア, and the global security situation is facing the risk of a spiral deterioration.

Under the leadership of the United States, NATO continues to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine, provide personnel training and intelligence support, and continue to add fuel to the crisis. Since the Biden administration came to power, the total amount of military aid pledged by the United States to Ukraine has reached 30 billion U.S. dollars. NATO has continuously strengthened its military deployment in Eastern Europe, the three Baltic countries and other areas surrounding Russia, actively absorbed Sweden と フィンランド into the treaty, and ドイツ, フランス, デンマーク and other NATO members have greatly increased their defense expenditures. These moves continue to stimulate Russia's security nerves.

In the view of Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, Europe "has actually been at war with Russia indirectly", and "soon we will hear such things as 'peacekeeping forces'". Fyodor Lukyanov, director of research at the Valdai International Debate Club in Russia, believes that the supply of tanks to Ukraine by the West is very likely to bring Russia and NATO to the brink of direct conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also warned in an interview with the TASS news agency that the Western policy aimed at comprehensively containing Russia is extremely dangerous and may lead to direct armed conflicts between nuclear powers.

In response to Western military pressure, Russia is also stepping up efforts to strengthen its military power and demonstrate its strategic deterrence capabilities. On the one hand, the Russian army has intensified its attacks on Ukraine's military, communications, and energy infrastructure in order to destroy Ukraine's war potential. On the other hand, Russia has expanded its military strength through partial mobilization, and plans to make large-scale adjustments from 2023 to 2026 to expand the number of troops to 1.5 million, while strengthening equipment supply guarantees and infrastructure construction to meet national defense needs.

The reason why this crisis has developed to this point is that NATO led by the United States adheres to the Cold War mentality, indulges in zero-sum games, and is keen on confrontation between camps, trying to weaken Russia to the greatest extent through "proxy wars." "As the dialogue channel is closed, the artillery has become a megaphone." Pankaj Mishra, a columnist for Bloomberg News, wrote that the escalating military assistance from the United States and Europe to Ukraine has ushered in a "dangerous new era" in global politics.

Geopolitical reshaping

As Mishra said, the escalation of the Ukraine crisis has profoundly reshaped the global geopolitical landscape.

The confrontation between the West, led by the United States, and Russia has intensified. Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense and senior diplomat Freeman said that U.S. President Biden has repeatedly emphasized that the U.S. supports Ukraine "as long as it wants to fight." If it is to weaken and isolate Russia, then this goal will not only be impossible to achieve, but will lead to a series of negative consequences. If the bloodshed continues for a long time, it will not be good for Europe, Russia, Ukraine and the United States.

A rift is growing between the battered Europe and the profiteering America. At the beginning of the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, Europe and the United States showed a gesture of "unity", but soon Europe strongly felt the backlash effect of sanctions against Russia: energy prices soared, commodity prices rose sharply, and people complained. The United States not only sells energy and arms to Europe at high prices, but also enacts the "Inflation Reduction Act" and "2022 Chips and Science Act", which contain huge industrial subsidies and hegemonic provisions to curb competition, seriously hurting European interests and triggering European countries. dissatisfied. Former Italian Deputy Minister of Economic Development Michele Geraci said that NATO's continuous eastward expansion under the leadership of the United States is one of the root causes of the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, but the cost of the crisis is mainly borne by Europe.

Most developing countries refuse to choose sides and show their will to be independent. The U.S. government has put pressure on サウジアラビアは、 アラブ首長国連邦 and other allies in the Middle East, asking these countries to increase oil production to lower international oil prices and cooperate with Western sanctions against Russia, but they were met with cold reception. At the 59th Munich Security Conference held a few days ago, leaders of the United States and other Western countries vigorously advocated the "Russia threat theory", which was refuted by developing countries. "We don't want to continue discussing who will be the winner or the loser of the war. We are all losers," Colombian Vice President Francia Marquez said.

In fact, developing countries are increasingly dissatisfied with the Western-dominated international order. The "Munich Security Report 2023" issued by the current Mu'an Security Conference pointed out that the escalation of the Ukraine crisis has brought challenges to the international order. Many Asian, African and Latin American countries have "reasonable dissatisfaction" with the existing international order. Such dissatisfaction needs to be addressed Respect, the world needs to reshape the vision of international order.

Spillover Effects Reaching the World

Faced with the doubling of the price of tomatoes, rice, eggs and other foods, Abdel Rahman, an Egyptian garbage collector, had to find another part-time job at night to support his three children; Meria, a small Tunisian farmer, could not afford the high price of feed. Due to the surge in costs brought about by the price increase, one-third of the livestock had to be sold to reduce losses; the Hungarian bakery owner Margit watched the gas bill rise more than 6 times, and his business was in trouble... The crisis in Ukraine has escalated, especially the western target Russia's severe sanctions have had a major impact on the economic and social fields of various countries, and the spillover effect has spread to the whole world.

On the economic level, rising prices of bulk commodities such as food and energy have exacerbated global inflation. Russia is the world's major producer of oil and natural gas. Several rounds of Western sanctions against Russia disrupted the market mechanism, causing the price of natural gas in Europe to hit a record high. Both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of grain, and the conflict has blocked the exports of the two countries. In particular, the West has set up "hidden barriers" against the export of Russian agricultural products, which has caused Russian exporters to be "stuck" in many links, and international grain prices have fluctuated sharply due to this impact. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, in 2022, a total of about 205 million people in 45 countries and regions will be in a state of food insecurity at the "crisis" level or worse, a substantial increase from the previous year. The latest data from the International Monetary Fund shows that the global inflation rate will be 8.8% in 2022, much higher than the 4.7% in 2021. Inflation rates in the United States, Europe, and 日本 are all at decades-high points, and the inflation situation in some emerging markets and developing economies such as トルコ と アルゼンチン is even more severe.

At the social level, the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine has triggered a new wave of refugees, while also exacerbating global poverty. In the past year, millions of refugees have fled Ukraine, forming the largest refugee flow in Europe since World War II. Globally, high food prices hit the world's poorest the hardest. According to World Bank estimates, for every 1% increase in food prices, 10 million people around the world will fall into extreme poverty. Increased inflation is also intensifying social conflicts in many countries, and protests and riots caused by declining purchasing power have occurred from time to time.

Right now, the crisis in Ukraine shows no signs of subsiding, and its spillover effects on the world economy and society will continue. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the Ukraine crisis was the "biggest headwind" facing the world economy in 2022 and likely in 2023 as well.

Persuading peace and promoting talks is the right way

The Ukrainian crisis carries with it the historical problems left over from the Cold War of the last century, highlighting the complex game in the current century-old situation.

The world is once again standing at the crossroads of history.

China is worried about the expansion and protracted conflict. Over the past year, China has always stood on the side of peace and dialogue, advocated a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security concept, and made efforts to cool down the situation, achieve an early ceasefire and cessation of war, and avoid humanitarian crises.

Looking back at China's previous statements, persuading peace and promoting talks has always been the key word, calling for rationality and calmness to be consistent.

From the second day of the conflict, President Xi Jinping proposed seeking a political solution to the dispute through dialogue. President Xi Jinping clearly pointed out that there are no winners in conflicts and wars, there are no simple answers to complex issues, and confrontation between major powers must be avoided. He has repeatedly talked with leaders of France, Germany, the United States and other regional organizations such as the European Union, and clearly stated his position on the Ukraine issue: "The sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, and the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations should be respected." The legitimate security concerns of all countries should be respected, and all efforts to resolve the crisis peacefully should be supported.” Lasting peace in the Eurasian continent" "To prevent the expansion of local conflicts".

In April 2022, President Xi Jinping proposed a global security initiative, proposing a Chinese solution to address international security challenges and achieve long-term peace and stability in the world, which has received wide recognition and support internationally. A few days ago, the Chinese government released the "Global Security Initiative Concept Paper", which provides more systematic thinking and more feasible measures to solve global security problems.

Bambang Suryono, chairman of the Indonesian think-tank Asia Innovation Research Center, said that unlike some Western countries’ one-sided pursuit of their own security, China’s global security initiative pursues common security, emphasizing peace and cooperation. It is conducive to the establishment of an international order of mutual respect, equality and mutual trust, and is of great significance to the realization of lasting peace and long-term development of mankind.

Observers pointed out that human society must not go back to the old path of confrontation between camps and divisions, and must not fall into the trap of zero-sum games and war conflicts. Building a safer world is the strong desire of the people of all countries, the common responsibility of all countries in the world, and it is the right direction for the development of the times. The concepts and propositions advocated by the Global Security Initiative and the specific path of "supporting the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis and other hot issues through dialogue and negotiation" have provided important guidance for resolving crises and maintaining world peace and stability.